We cannot let
the challenges of
the past define
our relationships
of the future
Prime Minister Keir Starmer
The election of a new government is often a moment in time to reset, to draw a line in the sand and establish, or build on, relationships. The General Election in the United Kingdom on 4 July was set against a cost-of-living crisis and an electorate that, ultimately, had grown tired of the previous Conservative government. Across Britain, the election produced a clear, if not confident result for the Labour Party, who returned to government for the first time in 14 years. However, the headline victory conceals a much more complex landscape. The Labour majority in the House of Commons comes with a small share of the vote – just 35 per cent of voters lent their support to the party now in government, with a 172-seat majority. That said, the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, has entered 10 Downing Street with a capable team of senior ministers and advisers and as the dust settles on new appointments, appears to have injected a confidence and credibility to central government, lacking in recent years.
Across the election, there was noticeable success for smaller parties, including the Green Party who won four seats and Reform UK. The latter emerged from the ashes of the Brexit Party and is now led by arch-Brexiter and agitator, Nigel Farage - who himself secured a seat in the Commons after eight previous attempts. The party, which has five MPs, promises to be the more vocal opposition to the new government and is second place to Labour in over 80 seats, having managed to tap into right wing support to sufficiently erode the Conservative vote share. The Liberal Democrats also secured historic success with 72 MPs, the best result in their history. Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party, which has dominated politics in Scotland for the past decade, was reduced to just nine MPs, with a loss of 39 seats. The SNP was beset with scandal and a sense of failure – their main cause of independence is now firmly off the agenda. Labour also felt the effect of independent candidates, not least the former leader of the party, while single issues, in this case Gaza are unlikely to stick, this was an interesting new caucus in UK electoral politics.
New Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, has entered 10 Downing Street with a capable team of senior ministers and advisers and as the dust settles on new appointments, appears to have injected a confidence and credibility to central government, lacking in recent years.
Foreign Policy
Central to the new government’s long list of actions is a return to growth in the economy to deliver improvements in public services, most notably health. The government’s honeymoon could be short lived, the public will want to see a material change in access and quality of the NHS, education and in other public services, or it will feel the consequences. Beyond Westminster, and indeed the country, the new Prime Minister has soon found his diary filled with foreign and defence policy – including, you might say, a night in Berlin for the Euros final!
In all important foreign policy, priorities include potential revisions to the Brexit trade deal, cross-Channel migration, and critically a new security pact with the EU on shared issues of concern. This is a key Labour policy priority and, in many ways, encompasses under the same umbrella areas including defence, energy and climate, pandemics and illegal migration.
Timing is key in politics, as in diplomacy, and the long-planned NATO summit in Washington DC and the early bilateral meeting with President Biden in the Oval Office came in Starmer’s first week as Prime Minister. Week two has seen the UK host the fourth meeting of the European Political Community. Leaders from over 40 countries met in Oxfordshire – a great opportunity for the much-briefed reset of relations with the UK’s closest allies. The Prime Minister said the meeting ‘will fire the starting gun on this Government’s new approach to Europe’. This has already been evident in the consensus that appeared to emerge on approaches to illegal migration. Expect to see much more UK-EU cooperation on, for example tackling smuggling gangs and addressing issues ‘upstream’ – we have seen for the first time this week the return to France of migrant boats by UK authorities. The meeting was also an opportunity to restate the UK’s security, defence and financial support for Ukraine.
The Prime Minister has looked to the UK’s closest neighbours for early talks. The Irish Taoiseach, Simon Harris, was a guest at the Prime Minister’s country residence Chequers this week. The next evening, President Macron of France had dinner with his new counterpart. However, the degree to which the European Union is willing or able to match the UK’s ambitions to reset and be key partners is to be seen. But, in signs of some change from Brussels and indeed UK attitudes, it is welcome that the new Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has been invited to attend the EU Foreign Affairs Council later in the year, something that past Conservative ministers rejected.
Beyond Europe, the NATO summit was an opportunity for the new government to meet with key defence and security actors, all set against heightened threats across great-power competition and the potential risk to the United States’ commitment to European defence and security. Labour has committed to increase spending on defence to 2.5 per cent of GDP, albeit with no timeframe provided. New ministers in the Ministry of Defence know this may take a decade to deliver given the low growth in the economy they have inherited. However, the new government’s early outlook is internationalist. It will in coming weeks look beyond Europe and the transatlantic alliance, not just in defence and security but in trade and cooperation.
The new Prime Minister has had a packed domestic agenda. The recent King’s Speech contained a long list to fill a busy legislative programme for the new Parliament. It remains to be seen what kind of statesman Starmer will be, but the early signs seem promising. As former EU Commissioner and UK Cabinet Minister, Lord Mandelson said of the European leaders’ summit this week: “trust first, discussion second and then see what emerges”. Perhaps a helpful guide for the new UK government as it navigates relationships across our complex world.