The move came after mounting pressure to resign, just two years since the general election which swept the Labour party to power with a large parliamentary majority on historically low popularity with voters. The announcement marks a notable change in Sir Keir Starmer’s resolute tone over recent weeks that he would fight any challenge. 

The timetable is short. Nominations will open on 9 July and conclude by the House of Commons summer recess on 17 July. To be on the ballot, an MP requires the backing of 80 other colleagues. The NEC will then chart a timetable to allow members and affiliates to vote over the summer. A new Prime Minister will be in place before parliament returns in early September. If there is only one candidate, however, there will be a new Prime Minister next month. With Andy Burnham on course to secure the nomination of nearly 300 MPs and potential contenders backing him, the prospect of Prime Minister Burnham, without a summer contest, is now most likely.   

Many allies of Keir Starmer, such as Communities Secretary, Steve Reed and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, will now be considering their own political futures as we assess who will staff Downing Street and take the top cabinet roles. 

With the former Greater Manchester Mayor the favourite to succeed Sir Kier Starmer, attention has also rightly turned to his public spending commitments. Burnham sought to strike a balance between the competing interests of local and national policy objectives throughout the recent by-election campaign that enabled his move back to Westminster. Most notably, Burnham had to stress his commitment to the government’s fiscal rules after previously arguing that Britain should not be in “hock” to the bond market to maintain fiscal credibility. He has similarly had to row back on other spending commitments, including fully compensating the Women Against State Pension Inequality campaign. 

In the longer term, Burnham has signalled his desire to introduce more significant changes to public spending with the aim of bringing about greater public control of key utilities in energy and water. Burnham has said he wants to see “the essentials of life being run primarily for the public interest, not for private interests.” This would involve undoing the “privatisation premium,” according to a policy paper titled The Productive State, published by Mainstream; a soft-left Labour group close to Burnham. He is being closely advised by Miatta Fahnbulleh MP, who argues for a framework of greater state intervention to protect the public from rising costs, rather than fully fledged renationalisation. 

Burnham’s commitment to the current fiscal rules and Labour’s existing manifesto commitments is likely to limit his room for manoeuvre in the near term. Recent statements by the new Makerfield MP indicate that he would stick to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules should he become Prime Minister and abide by Labour’s manifesto commitments not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, to calm the international bond markets. To that end, he has brought on board Andy Haldane, former Bank of England Chief Economist; Richard Hughes, former Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility; and Jim O’Neill, the crossbench peer and former minister who worked on George Osborne’s ‘Northern Powerhouse.’ However, these tax commitments will similarly constrain any spending plans the prospective Prime Minister might hope to pursue. 

What is apparent, though, is that Burnham has ambitions for much more radical changes to the tax landscape, including amending the income tax system and pursuing fundamental reform of property taxation. He has previously suggested introducing a 10 per cent ‘starting rate’ of tax for low earners and raising the top level of income tax to 50 per cent. Burnham has not yet specified when the starting rate would kick in or at what income level the 50 per cent rate would be set. On property taxation, he has argued in favour of replacing council tax with a form of land value tax, which would see high-value properties in London and the South East pay more, while lower-value properties in the north of England would see a tax cut. 

For the Metro Mayor who, for the last 10 years, has benefitted from being able to spend money on flagship projects such as the new bus network and city centre investment in Manchester, the same challenges that faced Starmer and Reeves will likely curtail much of Burnham’s flexibility on public spending.