The Summer of Change?
While Britain and France have both voted for the left, Philip Cluff asks if their programmes can make a tangible difference
The Labour Party’s recent electoral victory in the UK marked the largest majority since 1997 and the second largest in British history. However, this election brought both triumphs and challenges for Keir Starmer. Notably, Nigel Farage, on his fifth attempt, has finally become a Member of Parliament and has vowed to be as disruptive to Labour’s programme as possible. Foreign Secretary David Lammy has already set out to Poland to restore the European ties that Farage helped to sever, and the diplomatic charm offensive will be key over the summer, as European governments assess the legitimacy of Labour’s faith in a renaissance of EU relations.
Although Reform UK may stand in a considerable parliamentary minority, they have already demonstrated a capacity for hounding a major political party into a corner, having made Rishi Sunak’s life difficult over the course of June. Despite winning only five seats, Reform UK received four million votes, a significant number indicating support from both former Conservative and Labour supporters. Keir Starmer must be cautious not to take the proportional representation question for granted, as he has already mentioned complacency as the biggest threat to his party. In that respect, Nigel Farage can afford to bide his time over the summer, as he looks abroad, particularly to the United States, for a larger platform.
Farage’s position as a right-wing political disruptor finds a notable comparison in the much younger, and arguably more charismatic Jordan Bardella. At 28, Bardella’s potential as a future French Prime Minister is still very much alive. Had the National Rally won a majority in France’s National Assembly, he would likely already be chairing proceedings at the Hotel Matignon. Although an unexpected coalition of left-leaning parties stymied this anticipated victory, Bardella has time on his side. His ability to appeal to young people by distancing the National Rally from its fascist roots has helped put the party’s leader, Marine Le Pen, in pole position for the 2027 Presidential election. The recent election was perhaps most notable for the increase in voter participation, up to 72 per cent despite France’s reputation for mass-abstentions. President Macron will doubtlessly refer to this statistic as a reflection of the seriousness with which people regard the threat of a far-right government in Paris.
The diplomatic charm offensive will be key over the summer, as European governments assess the legitimacy of Labour’s faith in a renaissance of EU relations.
However, the election in France can only be seen as a temporary reprieve, and President Macron must begin campaigning furiously now if he sincerely wants to block Marine Le Pen’s path to the Presidency in 2027. Indeed, with Paris hosting the Olympics this summer, the first test of Macron’s competence has already begun. Communist Party leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains a controversial figure, with limited support among France’s vast civil service, which he has repeatedly campaigned to defund, particularly the police forces, and he can be expected to apply considerable and vocal pressure to Macron’s moderate policies over the coming months.
Le Pen maintains a well-documented and amiable relationship with other leading right-wing figures across Europe, including Farage, who inspired her short-lived ‘Frexit’ initiative. However, her closest ally among these influential conservatives is Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Orban’s fiery rhetoric against the European Union might be seen as a healthy expression of a different perspective, but his outspoken support for Vladimir Putin is much more concerning.
The broader implications of these elections are underscored by ongoing international tensions, such as Russia’s missile strikes on Ukrainian targets. Despite the National Rally's efforts to reform its image ahead of the 2027 Presidential election, the main worry remains their proximity to the Kremlin’s expansionist agenda. Only outright condemnation can deter such abuses of power. The summer weather has allowed for greater manoeuvrability of troops in Ukraine, and as a result greater casualties have followed, with Russia’s draft of yet another 150,000 troops doing little to encourage a diplomatic settlement in the coming months. Recent events in Gaza serve as a sobering reminder of the consequences when the international community is slow to act against political violence.
In this context, elections in France and the UK may not be the most critical recent events. The election of Masoud Pezeshkian in Iran could potentially bring a calming influence to tense international relations between NATO countries and the increasingly integrated alliance of China, Russia, and Iran. Pezeshkian’s promise to reform Iran’s image abroad while upholding the principles of the 1979 revolution presents a challenging balancing act. However, if it leads to a repeal of drone sales to Russia or pressure on Houthi rebels to ensure safe passage for British shipping through the Gulf, it could be a significant turning point.
Recent events in Gaza serve as a sobering reminder of the consequences when the international community is slow to act against political violence.
Meanwhile, the elephant in the room remains that of the United States Republican Party. At the time of writing, Donald Trump is leading in the polls, and Biden has withdrawn from the Presidential race. Vice President Kamela Harris is the new Democratic presidential nominee, but there remain doubts about her ability to lead the Democrats to victory. Trump has already clarified his position on repealing aid and military financing from Ukraine, a decision that could escalate concerns about European security, and so Harris’s ability to fight this election and mitigate Trump’s lead in the polls will be the lynchpin of global strategy considerations over the foreseeable future.
Across the United States, the UK, and France, the key overlapping domestic issue remains immigration. While global markets have steadied following the electoral changes in Paris and London, the outcomes of the US elections will significantly influence whether migration from the East to Western Europe becomes an even more inflammatory issue. The Labour Party has already swiftly moved to repeal the controversial Tory initiative of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, but in the interests of peace and good order, Labour still need to ascertain how they intend to stop illegal migration across the Channel. As migration numbers surge in the summer, so does the tragic death toll of those who drown on small boats unfit for crossing the English Channel. In the interests of those lives, and the wider debate around immigration, Keir Starmer, known for his commitment to human rights, will be desperate to find a rapid solution with his counterpart President Macron. Only time will tell if the pair can come up with an effective solution, and protect their respectively declining economies in the process.